CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 3:43 pm

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 28th, 2022, 3:09 pm

CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 11:36 am

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 28th, 2022, 10:35 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 9:53 am The Swansea university covid modellers have gone for 750,000 and plan announce it on the cover of the Argus tomorrow - when it turns out to be 3,750 we won't hear a peep from them ('modelling is not an exact science, etc.')!

They were one week out with predicting the peek of Omicron, so not too bad. Not easy to predict the number Saturday based on nine years at RP, let alone a varient less than 2 month's old.

While I was being tongue in cheek no denying that the 'modelling' around Covid has been unfailingly appalling and unashamedly [very] ‘worst case’* and what’s worse after the nth time they got it totally wrong they were still being believed and 'rules' being made off the back of it...trouble is if they were/are wrong (which they always have been) its ‘well thank goodness those numbers didn’t come to pass – and think what would have happened if we hadn’t had the rules we had’ – so essentially it’s a win win for them and a lose lose for the public

*in fairness they were asked to model for the absolute worst case

Which if you are responsible for everything we rely on, you would want a prediction. A model to see what would happen to your resources, and the knock on affect.

How long have they been modeling the weather to preduce a forecast? , and it still isn't always predictable.

Generally speaking people enjoy breaking rules, or getting around them, or bending them a bit. IMHO probably less than 50% of the crowd on Saturday will obtain entry with their own legitimate covid pass, or lateral flow test.

Does it matter? YES if what you want, is to get accurate predictions, and therefore less worst case modeling, and the restrictions that follow on........

I was being deliberately facetious again obviously but as for your 'less than 50%' prediction - given nearly 75% of people in Wales have had at least 2 doses and over 50% have had a booster [jab] and that most people have their ‘passports’ on their smart phones and most people would be using their own phones (would you lend a mate you smart phone for 3 hours to diddle the system? Apart from anything feel most people wouldn’t want to be parted from their phone for that long!) I’d say your ‘modelling’ on that is more than a little cynical – now how effective a measure the ‘passport’s are is a different matter but I’d say the level of ‘fraud’ on this is very low but agree mask wearing will likely be very low I suspect but then football isn’t the only event/space where mask wearing is poor