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Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

31 by Stan A. Einstein
County Valleyboy wrote: January 27th, 2022, 10:14 am
lowandhard wrote: January 26th, 2022, 4:10 pm
OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:43 pm
Exile 1976 wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:17 pm3500
Guessing 3700. Those still keeping away because of covid would have seen case rates not significantly different in Wales since the last home game with fans, and indeed hospilisations have doubled.

Tend to agree, despite the deafening silence on the media on Covid figures ( and testing figures are at best haphazard ) about 2 thousand people are dying every week from Covid but nobody seems to care any more.
Don't you mean "with COVID" not from.... different thing entirely
There is a programme on Radio 4 called More or Less. Yesterday's programme which you can listen to on BBC sounds explains this scenario.
In terms whilst about 17,500, died of Covid alone in the UK well over 100,000 who would still be alive died because Covid aggravated a pre existing condition. As you point out some people will have died with Covid not of it. You should of course remember that because of people being treated with Covid clogging up hospitals deaths from other causes will result.
The last point I make to unapologetically point out that those who for ideological reasons refuse to get vaccinated have blood on their hands.

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

32 by Bangitintrnet
The other thing that is sometimes mentioned, is dieing after getting run over by a bus, whilst recovering from Covid, but becoming a died with covid statitistic.

The Doctor needs to mention covid as a contributory factor, on the death certificate. So if it is clear that the patient died from his accident injuries, then thats what will be on the death certificate. Listening to some (not on here) you would think that Doctors do a Covid test after death, but before writing the death certificate.

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

33 by Fu Ming
Stan A. Einstein wrote: January 27th, 2022, 2:15 pm
County Valleyboy wrote: January 27th, 2022, 10:14 am
lowandhard wrote: January 26th, 2022, 4:10 pm
OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:43 pm
Exile 1976 wrote: January 26th, 2022, 3:17 pm3500
Guessing 3700. Those still keeping away because of covid would have seen case rates not significantly different in Wales since the last home game with fans, and indeed hospilisations have doubled.

Tend to agree, despite the deafening silence on the media on Covid figures ( and testing figures are at best haphazard ) about 2 thousand people are dying every week from Covid but nobody seems to care any more.
Don't you mean "with COVID" not from.... different thing entirely
There is a programme on Radio 4 called More or Less. Yesterday's programme which you can listen to on BBC sounds explains this scenario.
In terms whilst about 17,500, died of Covid alone in the UK well over 100,000 who would still be alive died because Covid aggravated a pre existing condition. As you point out some people will have died with Covid not of it. You should of course remember that because of people being treated with Covid clogging up hospitals deaths from other causes will result.
The last point I make to unapologetically point out that those who for ideological reasons refuse to get vaccinated have blood on their hands.
Well said Stan, I too listen to More or Less on Radio 4 presented by Tim Harford where he demystifies a lot of the hyperbole that gets banded about by statistics to sensationalise political news reporting, and he elucidates the numbers and places them in a clearer context.
Well worth tuning in for those who have a more rational and open mind.

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

37 by Bangitintrnet
CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 9:53 am The Swansea university covid modellers have gone for 750,000 and plan announce it on the cover of the Argus tomorrow - when it turns out to be 3,750 we won't hear a peep from them ('modelling is not an exact science, etc.')!
They were one week out with predicting the peek of Omicron, so not too bad. Not easy to predict the number Saturday based on nine years at RP, let alone a varient less than 2 month's old.

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

39 by CathedralCounty
Bangitintrnet wrote: January 28th, 2022, 10:35 am
CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 9:53 am The Swansea university covid modellers have gone for 750,000 and plan announce it on the cover of the Argus tomorrow - when it turns out to be 3,750 we won't hear a peep from them ('modelling is not an exact science, etc.')!
They were one week out with predicting the peek of Omicron, so not too bad. Not easy to predict the number Saturday based on nine years at RP, let alone a varient less than 2 month's old.
While I was being tongue in cheek no denying that the 'modelling' around Covid has been unfailingly appalling and unashamedly [very] ‘worst case’* and what’s worse after the nth time they got it totally wrong they were still being believed and 'rules' being made off the back of it...trouble is if they were/are wrong (which they always have been) its ‘well thank goodness those numbers didn’t come to pass – and think what would have happened if we hadn’t had the rules we had’ – so essentially it’s a win win for them and a lose lose for the public

*in fairness they were asked to model for the absolute worst case

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

41 by Stan A. Einstein
One factor that seems to call difficulty for many, Fu Ming is right listen to More or Less, is that you need in any analysis to take acount of probability.
When Newport County played Leicester City in the Cup, I thought there was a 70% chance Leicester would win, 20% the draw 10% County would win. Now if you asked me before that game kicked off who I thought would win, I would have replied Leicester. And I would have been right. Had I said that I was certain Leicester would win, then I would have been wrong.
Apply that to modelling. You put in all the facts you know. No matter how much you know, there will be things you don't know. So why do I think the crowd will be just under 5,000? Well County get a home support of about 3,500. We are on a good run, which I think will add a few hundred to the gate. Also as it has not been a game since God knows when where supporters could attend. Those supporters who attend 50% of the time are all likely to attend. That said Barrow are not lilely to bring huge numbers. So just below 5,000 seems a reasonable guess. If it rains heavily Saturday lunchtime the gate may be lower. Other factors may make it higher.
In short nothing is certain until it happens.
On all the facts I have, I think County will beat Barrow on Saturday. If I were to say I was certain we would beat Barrow I would be an idiot.
Not too difficult?

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

42 by CathedralCounty
Stan A. Einstein wrote: January 28th, 2022, 1:00 pm One factor that seems to call difficulty for many, Fu Ming is right listen to More or Less, is that you need in any analysis to take acount of probability.
When Newport County played Leicester City in the Cup, I thought there was a 70% chance Leicester would win, 20% the draw 10% County would win. Now if you asked me before that game kicked off who I thought would win, I would have replied Leicester. And I would have been right. Had I said that I was certain Leicester would win, then I would have been wrong.
Apply that to modelling. You put in all the facts you know. No matter how much you know, there will be things you don't know. So why do I think the crowd will be just under 5,000? Well County get a home support of about 3,500. We are on a good run, which I think will add a few hundred to the gate. Also as it has not been a game since God knows when where supporters could attend. Those supporters who attend 50% of the time are all likely to attend. That said Barrow are not lilely to bring huge numbers. So just below 5,000 seems a reasonable guess. If it rains heavily Saturday lunchtime the gate may be lower. Other factors may make it higher.
In short nothing is certain until it happens.
On all the facts I have, I think County will beat Barrow on Saturday. If I were to say I was certain we would beat Barrow I would be an idiot.
Not too difficult?
To use your analogy the modellers predicted, with perfectly straight faces, that 'County would win 9 nil with 10 men, the opposition would have 3 players sent off, miss 27 penalties and have to play in 'skins' because they'd forgotten their kit and as a gesture of goodwill their substitutes would be on burger duty and in the press conference afterwards the club would announce Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey had singed for us and that Lord Lucan had come out of hiding to chair the board and for good measure we'd signed a 3 billion £ deal with Nike to supply our kit for 5 years and Emirates would be sponsoring our shirts and the stadium then slink away when NONE of that happened

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

44 by Bangitintrnet
CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 11:36 am
Bangitintrnet wrote: January 28th, 2022, 10:35 am
CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 9:53 am The Swansea university covid modellers have gone for 750,000 and plan announce it on the cover of the Argus tomorrow - when it turns out to be 3,750 we won't hear a peep from them ('modelling is not an exact science, etc.')!
They were one week out with predicting the peek of Omicron, so not too bad. Not easy to predict the number Saturday based on nine years at RP, let alone a varient less than 2 month's old.
While I was being tongue in cheek no denying that the 'modelling' around Covid has been unfailingly appalling and unashamedly [very] ‘worst case’* and what’s worse after the nth time they got it totally wrong they were still being believed and 'rules' being made off the back of it...trouble is if they were/are wrong (which they always have been) its ‘well thank goodness those numbers didn’t come to pass – and think what would have happened if we hadn’t had the rules we had’ – so essentially it’s a win win for them and a lose lose for the public

*in fairness they were asked to model for the absolute worst case
Which if you are responsible for everything we rely on, you would want a prediction. A model to see what would happen to your resources, and the knock on affect.

How long have they been modeling the weather to preduce a forecast? , and it still isn't always predictable.

Generally speaking people enjoy breaking rules, or getting around them, or bending them a bit. IMHO probably less than 50% of the crowd on Saturday will obtain entry with their own legitimate covid pass, or lateral flow test.

Does it matter? YES if what you want, is to get accurate predictions, and therefore less worst case modeling, and the restrictions that follow on........

Re: Crowd v Barrow Saturday?

45 by CathedralCounty
Bangitintrnet wrote: January 28th, 2022, 3:09 pm
CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 11:36 am
Bangitintrnet wrote: January 28th, 2022, 10:35 am
CathedralCounty wrote: January 28th, 2022, 9:53 am The Swansea university covid modellers have gone for 750,000 and plan announce it on the cover of the Argus tomorrow - when it turns out to be 3,750 we won't hear a peep from them ('modelling is not an exact science, etc.')!
They were one week out with predicting the peek of Omicron, so not too bad. Not easy to predict the number Saturday based on nine years at RP, let alone a varient less than 2 month's old.
While I was being tongue in cheek no denying that the 'modelling' around Covid has been unfailingly appalling and unashamedly [very] ‘worst case’* and what’s worse after the nth time they got it totally wrong they were still being believed and 'rules' being made off the back of it...trouble is if they were/are wrong (which they always have been) its ‘well thank goodness those numbers didn’t come to pass – and think what would have happened if we hadn’t had the rules we had’ – so essentially it’s a win win for them and a lose lose for the public

*in fairness they were asked to model for the absolute worst case
Which if you are responsible for everything we rely on, you would want a prediction. A model to see what would happen to your resources, and the knock on affect.

How long have they been modeling the weather to preduce a forecast? , and it still isn't always predictable.

Generally speaking people enjoy breaking rules, or getting around them, or bending them a bit. IMHO probably less than 50% of the crowd on Saturday will obtain entry with their own legitimate covid pass, or lateral flow test.

Does it matter? YES if what you want, is to get accurate predictions, and therefore less worst case modeling, and the restrictions that follow on........
I was being deliberately facetious again obviously but as for your 'less than 50%' prediction - given nearly 75% of people in Wales have had at least 2 doses and over 50% have had a booster [jab] and that most people have their ‘passports’ on their smart phones and most people would be using their own phones (would you lend a mate you smart phone for 3 hours to diddle the system? Apart from anything feel most people wouldn’t want to be parted from their phone for that long!) I’d say your ‘modelling’ on that is more than a little cynical – now how effective a measure the ‘passport’s are is a different matter but I’d say the level of ‘fraud’ on this is very low but agree mask wearing will likely be very low I suspect but then football isn’t the only event/space where mask wearing is poor
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