Stan A. Einstein wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:43 pm

wattsville_boy wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:36 pm

Stan A. Einstein wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:09 pm It is impossible to tell you how long I will live. My life expectancy is about 20 years. But people who share my day and year of birth will die today, others sharing that auspicious day back in 1957 will still be around 40 years from now.

Same applies to points needed to make the play-offs. I don't know who will occupy the final lay-off space but with a high degree of confidence I can tell you know that they will be in the low to mid seventies. And to illustrate why understanding probability is more important than being mathematically certain let me give you two examples.

On the opening day of the season it is mathematically possible to be crowned champions at the end of the season with 46 points. Every game in the season ends in a draw. Everyone has a goal difference of zero. It goes to goals scored. 46 points and score enough goals and the silverware is yours. Too few and 46 points you're relegated in an unbeaten season.

Example Two. One team lose all their matches. Every other team wins twenty two games and lose twenty two of their remaining forty four games. sixty six points, added to the six from the team every one has done the double over means that the team with the worst goal difference will be relegated with seventy two points. The same number of points as the champions.

Clearly the examples above are ridiculous. they illustrate though probability. Seriously given enough time, trillions upon trillions of seasons, it would happen.

We need two points a game from now until the end of the season to make the play-offs, regardless of what anyone else does. I think the chances of that remote. Even if we do that, it only gets us a play-off position. 250/1 seems not unduly generous. Feel free to contradict me. Whether I am right or wrong I'll return to this post on April 27th.

Obviously it is more likely that one of the teams closer to the play-offs (or in the position) will prevail. But Leicester won the Premier League when they shouldn't, so miracles do sometimes happen.

I just think County should attack the February fixtures with a positive mindset and see where they stand at the end of that month...

I agree with you. And Newport winning promotion this season wouldn't be a miracle.

The reason I posted is that the predicament as I see it, is should we attempt the unlikely this season or invest in a plausibly better opportunity next season.

lowandhard wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 10:08 pm

Stan A. Einstein wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:43 pm

wattsville_boy wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:36 pm

Stan A. Einstein wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:09 pm It is impossible to tell you how long I will live. My life expectancy is about 20 years. But people who share my day and year of birth will die today, others sharing that auspicious day back in 1957 will still be around 40 years from now.

Same applies to points needed to make the play-offs. I don't know who will occupy the final lay-off space but with a high degree of confidence I can tell you know that they will be in the low to mid seventies. And to illustrate why understanding probability is more important than being mathematically certain let me give you two examples.

On the opening day of the season it is mathematically possible to be crowned champions at the end of the season with 46 points. Every game in the season ends in a draw. Everyone has a goal difference of zero. It goes to goals scored. 46 points and score enough goals and the silverware is yours. Too few and 46 points you're relegated in an unbeaten season.

Example Two. One team lose all their matches. Every other team wins twenty two games and lose twenty two of their remaining forty four games. sixty six points, added to the six from the team every one has done the double over means that the team with the worst goal difference will be relegated with seventy two points. The same number of points as the champions.

Clearly the examples above are ridiculous. they illustrate though probability. Seriously given enough time, trillions upon trillions of seasons, it would happen.

We need two points a game from now until the end of the season to make the play-offs, regardless of what anyone else does. I think the chances of that remote. Even if we do that, it only gets us a play-off position. 250/1 seems not unduly generous. Feel free to contradict me. Whether I am right or wrong I'll return to this post on April 27th.

Obviously it is more likely that one of the teams closer to the play-offs (or in the position) will prevail. But Leicester won the Premier League when they shouldn't, so miracles do sometimes happen.

I just think County should attack the February fixtures with a positive mindset and see where they stand at the end of that month...

I agree with you. And Newport winning promotion this season wouldn't be a miracle.

The reason I posted is that the predicament as I see it, is should we attempt the unlikely this season or invest in a plausibly better opportunity next season.

Well Brendan I think he’s been wise with this window and his attitude to commercial matters so far. Having said that, you really can’t decide when to get promoted! Just , as in the old football cliché, play it game by game and see what happens.

Taunton Iron Cider wrote: February 3rd, 2024, 6:49 am

lowandhard wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 10:08 pm

Stan A. Einstein wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:43 pm

wattsville_boy wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:36 pm

Stan A. Einstein wrote: February 2nd, 2024, 2:09 pm It is impossible to tell you how long I will live. My life expectancy is about 20 years. But people who share my day and year of birth will die today, others sharing that auspicious day back in 1957 will still be around 40 years from now.

Same applies to points needed to make the play-offs. I don't know who will occupy the final lay-off space but with a high degree of confidence I can tell you know that they will be in the low to mid seventies. And to illustrate why understanding probability is more important than being mathematically certain let me give you two examples.

On the opening day of the season it is mathematically possible to be crowned champions at the end of the season with 46 points. Every game in the season ends in a draw. Everyone has a goal difference of zero. It goes to goals scored. 46 points and score enough goals and the silverware is yours. Too few and 46 points you're relegated in an unbeaten season.

Example Two. One team lose all their matches. Every other team wins twenty two games and lose twenty two of their remaining forty four games. sixty six points, added to the six from the team every one has done the double over means that the team with the worst goal difference will be relegated with seventy two points. The same number of points as the champions.

Clearly the examples above are ridiculous. they illustrate though probability. Seriously given enough time, trillions upon trillions of seasons, it would happen.

We need two points a game from now until the end of the season to make the play-offs, regardless of what anyone else does. I think the chances of that remote. Even if we do that, it only gets us a play-off position. 250/1 seems not unduly generous. Feel free to contradict me. Whether I am right or wrong I'll return to this post on April 27th.

Obviously it is more likely that one of the teams closer to the play-offs (or in the position) will prevail. But Leicester won the Premier League when they shouldn't, so miracles do sometimes happen.

I just think County should attack the February fixtures with a positive mindset and see where they stand at the end of that month...

I agree with you. And Newport winning promotion this season wouldn't be a miracle.

The reason I posted is that the predicament as I see it, is should we attempt the unlikely this season or invest in a plausibly better opportunity next season.

Well Brendan I think he’s been wise with this window and his attitude to commercial matters so far. Having said that, you really can’t decide when to get promoted! Just , as in the old football cliché, play it game by game and see what happens.

Such wise words, have you ever said that before?