whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:42 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:36 am

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 10:44 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 22nd, 2022, 11:54 pm

We will have to agree to disagree . I cannot find any dictionary definition which says endemic means a disease is relatively low spread, indeed mine says it could be widespread. Perhaps you have access to a definition I don't have?

If it helps, I can offer the source I referred to and as extracted below. It is from the Wellcome Trust, I have no reason to suspect it is not genuine or accurate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59970281

Thank you for the confirmation that endemic doesn't automatically mean low spread and could mean widespread and the cause of a high a number of fatalities.

Did you not see this specific reference to low spread, I don't see how much clearer that could be? Perhaps you could post a clinical/medical source that suggests a cause of a high a number of fatalities?

Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:17 am The link between the NHS and the care service is busted, along with the fact that if your private operation is botched, you end up in the NHS. It's that, that requires finance from a Central Government that simply isn't functioning. Devolved governments therefore are forced to stump up the cash to just paper over the cracks. They don't have the resource to sort it.

The NHS is grossly inefficient and represents a bottomless pit as far as money is concerned. Staggered to read that in Wales 20% of the population are now on a waiting list for treatment.
Thanks also to Blair and his contracts, you will struggle to find a GP working a full week, most seem to top out at three days.

As for devolved Government’s, the Barnet formula ensures that Wales and the others get much more money per head of population than England. The fact it is largely misspent is another matter.

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:05 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:00 pm

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:39 am

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:33 am

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:22 am

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:11 am

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 11:03 am

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 10:58 am

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 10:53 am

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 10:44 am

If it helps, I can offer the source I referred to and as extracted below. It is from the Wellcome Trust, I have no reason to suspect it is not genuine or accurate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59970281

Whilst everyone hopes we will get to the Endemic, no scientific evidence has suggested that the UK is there yet. Indeed even when we are, the rest of the world won't be. That's why it is important to assist vaccination abroad, as only when you have Endemic status worldwide does it cease to be a world wide Pandemic. Then and only then do restrictions on travel be finally lifted.

Depends what your definition of 'is there yet'. There are numerous sources suggesting that we are reaching the endemic stage.

Did Boris suggest that the UK had reached the Endemic stage and it was all over then?

I dont listen to Boris any more than you do. But there are sources out there that suggest we are reaching the endemic stage.

And hence the restrictions are being lifted. Wales was not in that position when they were implemented, and nor was England. As a result 1 in 15 cought Omicron in England, as opposed to 1 in 20 in the devolved nations. How many more unnecessary deaths like Darren's will there be, that won't show up in the Covid statitistics?

But you justifying the extent of restrictions based on the rate of Covid Omicron infection, rather than the rate of those who fell seriously ill and/or died.

They are two entirely different scenarios.

Is Darren? Where is he in your statistics? That's the problem isn't it, no one is counting the Darren's.

They are not my statistics, they are yours.

So you are saying that there is no relationship between covid infection and unnessary death. Darren's just unlucky that he didn't die of Covid, so he could be part of the statistics?

No, I'm not saying that at all. Furthermore I have no intention of referring to such a personal situation.

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:15 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

I think that I did need to apologise, as I may have mislead others as well as myself.

Of course it was vaccinations that led to the eradication of smallpox, unfortunately one has yet to be found for malaria.

Given the current high number of cases do you actually believe we are about to enter a phase of the current virus that could be described as endemic?

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:43 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:15 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

I think that I did need to apologise, as I may have mislead others as well as myself.
Given the current high number of cases do you actually believe we are about to enter a phase of the current virus that could be described as endemic?

I sincerely hope we are - and given the significant fall of newly reported cases, against a background of significant recent infection, I am prepared to accept those conclusions now being suggested from numerous sources.

I've also been thinking about your other example of endemic disease - malaria. A disease that has been present for some time and widespread across several continents, with new strains appearing periodically, but is 'lived with' as endemic. Anti malarial medicines are offered, travel is not restricted in any way, science is progressing with regards to vaccination and eradication. In the meantime people go about their lives whilst reducing their risk of infection in any way they reasonably can.

Restrictions are placed on people for public health, and always have been. We are expected to wash our hands before we handle food or having used a toilet. We sneeze into a handkerchief, we don't urinate in the street. These are all restrictions.

Now as the health threat is heightened we increase the restrictions, as that threat declines we reduce the restrictions. The argument should be about what these restrictions should be.
Just a little thought. In the 30 years of the troubles in Northern Ireland approximately three and a half thousand people lost their lives. In the three weeks since New Years Day twice that number have been killed by Covid.
And they think it's all over.

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:55 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:43 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:15 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

I think that I did need to apologise, as I may have mislead others as well as myself.
Given the current high number of cases do you actually believe we are about to enter a phase of the current virus that could be described as endemic?

I sincerely hope we are - and given the significant fall of newly reported cases, against a background of significant recent infection, I am prepared to accept those conclusions now being suggested from numerous sources.

I've also been thinking about your other example of endemic disease - malaria. A disease that has been present for some time and widespread across several continents, with new strains appearing periodically, but is 'lived with' as endemic. Anti malarial medicines are offered, travel is not restricted in any way, science is progressing with regards to vaccination and eradication. In the meantime people go about their lives whilst reducing their risk of infection in any way they reasonably can.

I sincerely hope we are also, but have little confidence in it being so in the foreseeable future. Given the widely agreed opinion that the current strain is highly transmissible I cannot currently envisage people's behaviours being disciplined enough for this Country to reach an endemic stage where there is low spread. If it continues as I fear to be more accurately described as epidemic, there will surely be continued calls from all ages, and not just the elderly, to continue with some restrictions, especially if numbers in hospitals and death rates are above historic averages.

Should add that I continue to see the devolved administrations taking a different view from the UK government. In an attempt to bring this thread back on course, I'm more confident now that a return to the 'fan ban' is less likely in Wales, but wouldn't dismiss it entirely.

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:55 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:43 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:15 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

I think that I did need to apologise, as I may have mislead others as well as myself.
Given the current high number of cases do you actually believe we are about to enter a phase of the current virus that could be described as endemic?

I sincerely hope we are - and given the significant fall of newly reported cases, against a background of significant recent infection, I am prepared to accept those conclusions now being suggested from numerous sources.

I've also been thinking about your other example of endemic disease - malaria. A disease that has been present for some time and widespread across several continents, with new strains appearing periodically, but is 'lived with' as endemic. Anti malarial medicines are offered, travel is not restricted in any way, science is progressing with regards to vaccination and eradication. In the meantime people go about their lives whilst reducing their risk of infection in any way they reasonably can.

No doubt that would all change if Malaria was somehow able to spread person to person.

DT1892 wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:36 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:55 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:43 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:15 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

I think that I did need to apologise, as I may have mislead others as well as myself.
Given the current high number of cases do you actually believe we are about to enter a phase of the current virus that could be described as endemic?

I sincerely hope we are - and given the significant fall of newly reported cases, against a background of significant recent infection, I am prepared to accept those conclusions now being suggested from numerous sources.

I've also been thinking about your other example of endemic disease - malaria. A disease that has been present for some time and widespread across several continents, with new strains appearing periodically, but is 'lived with' as endemic. Anti malarial medicines are offered, travel is not restricted in any way, science is progressing with regards to vaccination and eradication. In the meantime people go about their lives whilst reducing their risk of infection in any way they reasonably can.

No doubt that would all change if Malaria was somehow able to spread person to person.

I'm sure you are correct.

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:41 pm

DT1892 wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:36 pm

No doubt that would all change if Malaria was somehow able to spread person to person.

I'm sure you are correct.

Being cynical on this one, if Malaria killed people with fair skin in rich countries as opposed to people with darker skin in poor countries more would be spent on this scourge.

Stan A. Einstein wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:58 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:41 pm

DT1892 wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:36 pm

No doubt that would all change if Malaria was somehow able to spread person to person.

I'm sure you are correct.

Being cynical on this one, if Malaria killed people with fair skin in rich countries as opposed to people with darker skin in poor countries more would be spent on this scourge.

I'm sure that is correct also.

DT1892 wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 1:36 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:55 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:43 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:15 pm

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 12:07 pm
Sincerest apologies. I was wrong and you were right about the medical definition of endemic. I was confusing it with epidemic. A lesson learnt for me to seek a clinical/source rather than listen to the media or politicians who suggest the virus is entering an endemic stage.
You will note however that the same source you posted also says endemic doesn't necessarily mean 'mild' and can be fatal
They give examples of smallpox being 'endemic' for centuries and killing untold millions in the past and malaria being currently 'endemic' and killing 600,000 per year. These figures IMO constitute a high number of fatalities.

No need to apologise, this is an unofficial forum !

I agree that historically endemic diseases have been significant - your smallpox example being one, but I'd say that the main reason for that was the virtual non-existence of medical science by comparison to today's standards.

I think that I did need to apologise, as I may have mislead others as well as myself.
Given the current high number of cases do you actually believe we are about to enter a phase of the current virus that could be described as endemic?

I sincerely hope we are - and given the significant fall of newly reported cases, against a background of significant recent infection, I am prepared to accept those conclusions now being suggested from numerous sources.

I've also been thinking about your other example of endemic disease - malaria. A disease that has been present for some time and widespread across several continents, with new strains appearing periodically, but is 'lived with' as endemic. Anti malarial medicines are offered, travel is not restricted in any way, science is progressing with regards to vaccination and eradication. In the meantime people go about their lives whilst reducing their risk of infection in any way they reasonably can.

No doubt that would all change if Malaria was somehow able to spread person to person.

Maybe, but then again, circa 250, 000, 000 get infected with malaria every year, with circa 600, 000 deaths - that's 0.2% mortality rate.

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 2:13 pm

Maybe, but then again, circa 250, 000, 000 get infected with malaria every year, with circa 600, 000 deaths - that's 0.2% mortality rate.

But that is precisely the point. The Omicron variant may have a lower mortality rate but as it is more infectious it will kill more people.

Which is why I believe Mark Drakeford is to be commended.

Stan A. Einstein wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 3:53 pm

whoareya wrote: January 23rd, 2022, 2:13 pm

Maybe, but then again, circa 250, 000, 000 get infected with malaria every year, with circa 600, 000 deaths - that's 0.2% mortality rate.

But that is precisely the point. The Omicron variant may have a lower mortality rate but as it is more infectious it will kill more people.

Which is why I believe Mark Drakeford is to be commended.

Agree and he is right to be cautious with abandoning sensible precautions while proceeding with relaxing restrictions. I find the English government’s self-congratulatory, we’re over the worst so “ chocks away “ attitude as rather ludicrous. The WHO and any sensible virologist I’ve listened to seem to agree that this virus has a large capacity for mutation left at its disposal and while omicron is bad enough, there is no guarantee that it’s successors will cause less problems. A large amount of circulating virus adds to the mutation possibilities and already I’ve read of BA.2 and BA.3 variants appearing on the continent, the failure of “ test and trace “ may yet have alarming consequences. This virus does not follow the usual pattern of an annual winter virus and is not like influenza, it can flare up at any time and anywhere the conditions permit it to mutate and unfortunately it has found a best friend in idiot politicians who are willing to gamble with lives.