Unpleasant is it?
Perhaps you you visit Big Swansea fan Nev Wiltshire's (of the call centre fame) grave. He thought it was just unpleasant as well, unvaxinated, 62 he was. Geeeeet Ouuuut.

CathedralCounty wrote: January 10th, 2022, 12:14 pm

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 10th, 2022, 11:59 am Why is it point scoring if as you say, the science says it does not work?
It is Boris that is going for herd immunity and **** the consequences. He did it in the first wave but was forced to change tactics by the effect.
There is a good balanced article in the Wales on line, with two professor's with different opinions. No doubt herd immunity will come in to play but only after we can cope with the peak.
Omicron is much more infectious so one person in close contact with others will be spreading it, and then the ones catching it will be spreading. That is fact, not science, but I except that people would rather see the systems they rely on in tatters.

The 'Science' has shown us that the hard-line approach to restrictions in Wales has had very little impact on case numbers and arguably does more harm than good - by 'points scoring' I mean the picture now looks like Drakeford is more concerned with slagging off Johnson and boasting about how his approach is the right one than looking behind it and taking a step back to ask 'are these rules still sensible/justified?, do we now look silly in continuing them? does the science actually back these rules up?' …even allowing for the faux scientific ‘modelling’ or when ‘peaks’ will be the picture looks worse in Wales which shows that these draconian measures are having a negligible perhaps even counterproductive effect (encouraging people to gather indoors and in less regulated spaces, encouraging people to travel to England, etc?) – not to mention that omicron is harmless to the vast, vast majority (albeit no doubt unpleasant if you get a symptomatic dose of it) – there is a middle ground between Drakeford’s ‘North Korean’ approach and Johnson’s ‘Texas’ approach but politics means nobody is mature or sensible enough to go with it and we, the Welsh public, suffer the consequences

My take on the man for what it's worth is that he is making the decisions for the right reasons but has misunderstood the mood of the Welsh public. I have expressed by belief on several occasions that we have reach the stage of this pandemic where the public's behaviours is having far more effect on the scale of the case numbers and the inevitable subsequent hospitalisations and deaths, than government decisions. My observations tell me that those behaviours overall ( not withstanding the very obvious difference at sporting events ) vary little between England and Wales. Similar percentages are behaving irresponsibly. Therefore mandating or advising are having similar effects. Believe Drakeford's mistake is believing greater compliance and/or responsible behaviour would occur as a result of making largely unenforced mandates. I believe he is wrong. Again sporting events excepted, but are those who behave irresponsible at sporting events the same ones who will behave irresponsible anyway, perhaps in a greater risk environment.
A side issue I know that has been raised under this heading has been 'Herd immunity' and the belief that Johnson is pursuing or hoping for that outcome. I accept that I have been particularly obtuse in my understanding of the term, but have recently heard Dr Chris Smith, consultant virologist, on the BBC 1 breakfast programme saying he doesn't believe that 'herd immunity' will ever be achieved for Covid 19, in the same way that it hasn't been for colds and 'flu. The main reason being the efficacy levels of the virus, the levels of uptake of the vaccine, the time-limited immunity afforded by both the vaccine and natural immunity; plus it's history of mutating. Clearly even professors have varied opinions on the subject of 'Herd Immunity' in relation to Covid 19 and it seems to me that currently some politicians/media and members of the public are desperately hoping that it will occur. Myself included, of course, yet I remain unconvinced.

Bangitintrnet wrote: January 10th, 2022, 1:41 pm Unpleasant is it?
Perhaps you you visit Big Swansea fan Nev Wiltshire's (of the call centre fame) grave. He thought it was just unpleasant as well, unvaxinated, 62 he was. Geeeeet Ouuuut.

Had a trial with us back in 80s I heard

Dividing a small Country like ours into 4 is always going to be a problem when a crisis occurs, in times past we would have formed a coalition government to ensure that we were all working in tandem.
Regardless of any of the "Leaders" decisions they will always have their critics, I wouldn't fancy their job.

Whatever your views on Mark Drakeford it is safe to say that he is in a completely different moral league to King Boris. I am not a Labour supporter, neither am I a Tory but he is a complete waste of space now.

This morning comes news that last May when we were in lockdown, Downing St issued an invitation to a 100 people to a party enjoy the sunshine. At this stage the country was in lockdown. A lady was on the news just now and six days earlier she buried her 10 year old son. Only 10 were allowed at his funeral. When he was asked about it yesterday he gave a pathetic giggle.

The man is beyond contempt. He has tried his best but it is time to go in my opinion.

One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Firstly why can't the death rate be explained away by having a higher age, and sicker population? It simply can't, can it?
Secondly they are working from home in England, and have to wear face masks in public places. Why? it's just a very very mild sniffle, less than a cold even.
Why then has Boris incarcerated the nation, while he parties on? It's a "let them eat cake" moment, isn't it?
Finally but not least, the Downing Street Flat, furnished by John Lewis ( a cooperative) where the worker's are partners, and receive their own share of the profits. To being furnished by whoever has benifitted the most from ridiculous contracts. If that's not a metafor for "fu** you, I am just laughing at you" I don't know what is.

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 11th, 2022, 10:13 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

The death rates/figures are I agree imperfect and are to an extent not an entirely fair comparison BUT they are all we have and do shed some light on the effectiveness or otherwise of the 'rules' – yes as I know from distant relatives and anecdotally that post-industrial illnesses for example do a play a part especially with anything connected to lungs – there won’t be a many men over 60 in a swathe of towns across the valley who haven’t worked at some point in industry/mining of some kind and that inevitably brings with it degrees of ill health – it is much more concentrated here in Wales than it could ever be in England (barring small pockets in the North) but even so can that explain away 28 more deaths per 100,000? I’m not expert enough to answer that…has Wales just been ‘unlucky’?

For clarity here I’m no fan of Boris and mentioned on previous posts think a middle ground is the better option across the UK just think its now descended to farce and grandstanding…principles are admirable but not when they give rise to sheer bloody mindedness and flexibility is what is need here on ALL sides of this and neither Drakeford’s nor Boris’ approach is an entirely mature or sensible one...

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 11:28 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 11th, 2022, 10:13 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

The death rates/figures are I agree imperfect and are to an extent not an entirely fair comparison BUT they are all we have and do shed some light on the effectiveness or otherwise of the 'rules' – yes as I know from distant relatives and anecdotally that post-industrial illnesses for example do a play a part especially with anything connected to lungs – there won’t be a many men over 60 in a swathe of towns across the valley who haven’t worked at some point in industry/mining of some kind and that inevitably brings with it degrees of ill health – it is much more concentrated here in Wales than it could ever be in England (barring small pockets in the North) but even so can that explain away 28 more deaths per 100,000? I’m not expert enough to answer that…has Wales just been ‘unlucky’?

For clarity here I’m no fan of Boris and mentioned on previous posts think a middle ground is the better option across the UK just think its now descended to farce and grandstanding…principles are admirable but not when they give rise to sheer bloody mindedness and flexibility is what is need here on ALL sides of this and neither Drakeford’s nor Boris’ approach is an entirely mature or sensible one...

Having briefly visited the deaths rates with covid on the death certificates I note that the North West and North East (over 300) have significant higher rates than Wales with the West Midlands marginally higher(289.9). This is clear evidence to me that death rates can be explained by demographics and post industrial/mining illnesses especially when compared with the comparatively very low rates in the South West i.e. (171 ) an area with far lower instances of an industrial past.
Therefore it could be reasonably argued when compared to regions of similar heavy industry/mining in England, Wales has the better record.

If one compares the Death rates within 28 days of a positive test by area the Welsh figures are lower than England as a whole i.e. 209.9 compared to 231.6; and indeed significantly lower than Yorkshire and Humberside, West Midlands, North West, North East, East of England, and East Midlands and the same as the South East. The only regions with lower rates than Wales are surprise, surprise those areas with a lower instances of historical heavy industry.
Using these statistics Wales again has a better record.

The question is therefore can Wales' overall better stats be attributed to their FM.

All hail the Messiah that is Mark Drakeford.

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:41 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 11:28 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 11th, 2022, 10:13 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

The death rates/figures are I agree imperfect and are to an extent not an entirely fair comparison BUT they are all we have and do shed some light on the effectiveness or otherwise of the 'rules' – yes as I know from distant relatives and anecdotally that post-industrial illnesses for example do a play a part especially with anything connected to lungs – there won’t be a many men over 60 in a swathe of towns across the valley who haven’t worked at some point in industry/mining of some kind and that inevitably brings with it degrees of ill health – it is much more concentrated here in Wales than it could ever be in England (barring small pockets in the North) but even so can that explain away 28 more deaths per 100,000? I’m not expert enough to answer that…has Wales just been ‘unlucky’?

For clarity here I’m no fan of Boris and mentioned on previous posts think a middle ground is the better option across the UK just think its now descended to farce and grandstanding…principles are admirable but not when they give rise to sheer bloody mindedness and flexibility is what is need here on ALL sides of this and neither Drakeford’s nor Boris’ approach is an entirely mature or sensible one...

Having briefly visited the deaths rates with covid on the death certificates I note that the North West and North East (over 300) have significant higher rates than Wales with the West Midlands marginally higher(289.9). This is clear evidence to me that death rates can be explained by demographics and post industrial/mining illnesses especially when compared with the comparatively very low rates in the South West i.e. (171 ) an area with far lower instances of an industrial past.
Therefore it could be reasonably argued when compared to regions of similar heavy industry/mining in England, Wales has the better record.

If one compares the Death rates within 28 days of a positive test by area the Welsh figures are lower than England as a whole i.e. 209.9 compared to 231.6; and indeed significantly lower than Yorkshire and Humberside, West Midlands, North West, North East, East of England, and East Midlands and the same as the South East. The only regions with lower rates than Wales are surprise, surprise those areas with a lower instances of historical heavy industry.
Using these statistics Wales again has a better record.

All hail the Messiah that is Mark Drakeford.

I had taken a headline figure and hadn’t drilled down - anyhow without playing fast a loose with deaths of real people to try to prove point (which we have both done already) - stats smats that said I’d agree yes post-industrial communities clearly suffer more as do the [objectively] ‘poor’ and by most measures Wales is [sadly] the poorest of the 4 main UK nations - albeit many parts pf Wales are very sparsely populated and have a farming/light industrial base - the tighter regulations in Wales have had no significant effect on death numbers and hospitalisations - i.e., Drakeford’s methods are not the gold standard. In any case my main point on the fan ban in particular but a number of the regulations is the farcical nature of them rather than the regulations themselves – common sense seems to be in short supply @Cardiff bay.

CathedralCounty wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:56 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:41 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 11:28 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 11th, 2022, 10:13 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

The death rates/figures are I agree imperfect and are to an extent not an entirely fair comparison BUT they are all we have and do shed some light on the effectiveness or otherwise of the 'rules' – yes as I know from distant relatives and anecdotally that post-industrial illnesses for example do a play a part especially with anything connected to lungs – there won’t be a many men over 60 in a swathe of towns across the valley who haven’t worked at some point in industry/mining of some kind and that inevitably brings with it degrees of ill health – it is much more concentrated here in Wales than it could ever be in England (barring small pockets in the North) but even so can that explain away 28 more deaths per 100,000? I’m not expert enough to answer that…has Wales just been ‘unlucky’?

For clarity here I’m no fan of Boris and mentioned on previous posts think a middle ground is the better option across the UK just think its now descended to farce and grandstanding…principles are admirable but not when they give rise to sheer bloody mindedness and flexibility is what is need here on ALL sides of this and neither Drakeford’s nor Boris’ approach is an entirely mature or sensible one...

Having briefly visited the deaths rates with covid on the death certificates I note that the North West and North East (over 300) have significant higher rates than Wales with the West Midlands marginally higher(289.9). This is clear evidence to me that death rates can be explained by demographics and post industrial/mining illnesses especially when compared with the comparatively very low rates in the South West i.e. (171 ) an area with far lower instances of an industrial past.
Therefore it could be reasonably argued when compared to regions of similar heavy industry/mining in England, Wales has the better record.

If one compares the Death rates within 28 days of a positive test by area the Welsh figures are lower than England as a whole i.e. 209.9 compared to 231.6; and indeed significantly lower than Yorkshire and Humberside, West Midlands, North West, North East, East of England, and East Midlands and the same as the South East. The only regions with lower rates than Wales are surprise, surprise those areas with a lower instances of historical heavy industry.
Using these statistics Wales again has a better record.

All hail the Messiah that is Mark Drakeford.

I had taken a headline figure and hadn’t drilled down - anyhow without playing fast a loose with deaths of real people to try to prove point (which we have both done already) - stats smats that said I’d agree yes post-industrial communities clearly suffer more as do the [objectively] ‘poor’ and by most measures Wales is [sadly] the poorest of the 4 main UK nations - albeit many parts pf Wales are very sparsely populated and have a farming/light industrial base - the tighter regulations in Wales have had no significant effect on death numbers and hospitalisations - i.e., Drakeford’s methods are not the gold standard. In any case my main point on the fan ban in particular but a number of the regulations is the farcical nature of them rather than the regulations themselves – common sense seems to be in short supply @Cardiff bay.

Sure we are all aware of the Lies, damn lies and statistics cliche. I was obviously being tongue in cheek when describing Drakeford as a Messiah, but trying to discredit him as overseeing a higher death rate Wales than England based on one set of stats alone is fundamentally wrong.

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 12th, 2022, 9:35 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:56 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:41 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 11:28 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 11th, 2022, 10:13 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

The death rates/figures are I agree imperfect and are to an extent not an entirely fair comparison BUT they are all we have and do shed some light on the effectiveness or otherwise of the 'rules' – yes as I know from distant relatives and anecdotally that post-industrial illnesses for example do a play a part especially with anything connected to lungs – there won’t be a many men over 60 in a swathe of towns across the valley who haven’t worked at some point in industry/mining of some kind and that inevitably brings with it degrees of ill health – it is much more concentrated here in Wales than it could ever be in England (barring small pockets in the North) but even so can that explain away 28 more deaths per 100,000? I’m not expert enough to answer that…has Wales just been ‘unlucky’?

For clarity here I’m no fan of Boris and mentioned on previous posts think a middle ground is the better option across the UK just think its now descended to farce and grandstanding…principles are admirable but not when they give rise to sheer bloody mindedness and flexibility is what is need here on ALL sides of this and neither Drakeford’s nor Boris’ approach is an entirely mature or sensible one...

Having briefly visited the deaths rates with covid on the death certificates I note that the North West and North East (over 300) have significant higher rates than Wales with the West Midlands marginally higher(289.9). This is clear evidence to me that death rates can be explained by demographics and post industrial/mining illnesses especially when compared with the comparatively very low rates in the South West i.e. (171 ) an area with far lower instances of an industrial past.
Therefore it could be reasonably argued when compared to regions of similar heavy industry/mining in England, Wales has the better record.

If one compares the Death rates within 28 days of a positive test by area the Welsh figures are lower than England as a whole i.e. 209.9 compared to 231.6; and indeed significantly lower than Yorkshire and Humberside, West Midlands, North West, North East, East of England, and East Midlands and the same as the South East. The only regions with lower rates than Wales are surprise, surprise those areas with a lower instances of historical heavy industry.
Using these statistics Wales again has a better record.

All hail the Messiah that is Mark Drakeford.

I had taken a headline figure and hadn’t drilled down - anyhow without playing fast a loose with deaths of real people to try to prove point (which we have both done already) - stats smats that said I’d agree yes post-industrial communities clearly suffer more as do the [objectively] ‘poor’ and by most measures Wales is [sadly] the poorest of the 4 main UK nations - albeit many parts pf Wales are very sparsely populated and have a farming/light industrial base - the tighter regulations in Wales have had no significant effect on death numbers and hospitalisations - i.e., Drakeford’s methods are not the gold standard. In any case my main point on the fan ban in particular but a number of the regulations is the farcical nature of them rather than the regulations themselves – common sense seems to be in short supply @Cardiff bay.

Sure we are all aware of the Lies, damn lies and statistics cliche. I was obviously being tongue in cheek when describing Drakeford as a Messiah, but trying to discredit him as overseeing a higher death rate Wales than England based on one set of stats alone is fundamentally wrong.

I'm genuinely not trying to ‘discredit’ a person who I really believe at heart is a decent and honourable (if extremely stubborn and at times petulant) man I don’t go with calling him silly names, etc., however I really don’t think his more localised and more homespun ‘principled’ approach is entirely suited to the realities of government during a pandemic (ditto Johnson’s buffoonery perhaps?) and my point was taking a step back and considering if what the Welsh government’s stance is actually working or working any better than [England’s] – I pointed out it largely wasn’t doing either.

I think deffo the pandemic [or the Welsh government’s approach to it] has massively affected my mental & physical health and relationship (my personal battles of course and not a cry for help - a lot of people in same position) and football is as I’ve said in other posts my one main social outlet – may sound pathetic and sad but I love football and despite some social anxiety enjoy going to the games in person it means a great deal to me…for various reasons some trivial some quite important I (and many others) feel the ‘fan ban’ and its farcical application was/is not the right approach. I know this has got to me and I’ve banged on about it but – I wish I could drop it but am so angry about it tbh – probably from the outside in I appear ridiculous! (like FFS man it’s a few game of football). All that said I’m not trying to attack Drakeford just his approach – a subtle but sure difference.

No beef with you btw – your arguments are measured and sensible that I don’t agree with them doesn’t make them any less valid – and sort of got your tongue in cheek tone but wasn’t 100% sure!

CathedralCounty wrote: January 12th, 2022, 10:02 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 12th, 2022, 9:35 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:56 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 12th, 2022, 8:41 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 11:28 am

OLDCROMWELLIAN wrote: January 11th, 2022, 10:13 am

CathedralCounty wrote: January 11th, 2022, 9:29 am One thing is the idea that authoritarianism is a 'virtue' it isn't especially when it doesn't work!

Have there been any benefits from Drakeford’s restrictions? Surely there has to have been some payoff from all this pain and privation? The harsh reality is that, taking the pandemic as a whole, Wales has a higher proportion of Covid deaths than England – with 288 people per 100,000 having Covid-19 on their death certificate in Wales, compared with 260 per 100,000 in England - that's 28 more per 100,000 or about 10% more (in real terms a small number but a number that can't be explained away by demography or post industrial illnesses, etc) - the restrictions in Wales [to date] simply have not 'worked'.

Again nothing personal to Drakeford - sure he is a decent man at heart but he has, as someone else mentioned, misread the mood in Wales and confused his puritanism and moral stance against the admitted buffoonery of Johnson with 'saving lives' (it has not) and Wales is suffering as a result of his stubborn principled stance - ironic for a man who is so proudly Welsh he has exhibited the stiff upper lip of a captured English army officer in the face of the brutal and [in his eyes] immoral and beastly 'English'/his critics - he will stand and take that beating but in doing so is allowing the rest of us to stand under a withering sun while he is doing so and suffer for his principles...

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/1 ... -a-virtue/

An interesting post and link, and would agree that unfortunately his greater restrictions than England has not resulted in any demonstrable benefits in comparison. My analogy would be more of a King Canute figure than a captured British (not English) army officer. Desperately commanding the tide of the virus intertwined with he swell of people's negligence at bay, and inevitably failing.
I do challenge your assertion though, that Wales' higher death rate compared with England cannot be explained by demographics, or environmental factors. After all how else could the significant regional differences of death rates be explained within England or even within Wales. Death rates as far as I'm aware are significantly higher in areas of relative poverty and population densities in both countries, and even amongst some ethnicities. Therefore I would assert that a simple comparison between England and Wales is spurious.

P.s. Forget to mention possibly the most significant factor of all. The percentage of the populations irresponsible behaviours effecting the level of contagion.

The death rates/figures are I agree imperfect and are to an extent not an entirely fair comparison BUT they are all we have and do shed some light on the effectiveness or otherwise of the 'rules' – yes as I know from distant relatives and anecdotally that post-industrial illnesses for example do a play a part especially with anything connected to lungs – there won’t be a many men over 60 in a swathe of towns across the valley who haven’t worked at some point in industry/mining of some kind and that inevitably brings with it degrees of ill health – it is much more concentrated here in Wales than it could ever be in England (barring small pockets in the North) but even so can that explain away 28 more deaths per 100,000? I’m not expert enough to answer that…has Wales just been ‘unlucky’?

For clarity here I’m no fan of Boris and mentioned on previous posts think a middle ground is the better option across the UK just think its now descended to farce and grandstanding…principles are admirable but not when they give rise to sheer bloody mindedness and flexibility is what is need here on ALL sides of this and neither Drakeford’s nor Boris’ approach is an entirely mature or sensible one...

Having briefly visited the deaths rates with covid on the death certificates I note that the North West and North East (over 300) have significant higher rates than Wales with the West Midlands marginally higher(289.9). This is clear evidence to me that death rates can be explained by demographics and post industrial/mining illnesses especially when compared with the comparatively very low rates in the South West i.e. (171 ) an area with far lower instances of an industrial past.
Therefore it could be reasonably argued when compared to regions of similar heavy industry/mining in England, Wales has the better record.

If one compares the Death rates within 28 days of a positive test by area the Welsh figures are lower than England as a whole i.e. 209.9 compared to 231.6; and indeed significantly lower than Yorkshire and Humberside, West Midlands, North West, North East, East of England, and East Midlands and the same as the South East. The only regions with lower rates than Wales are surprise, surprise those areas with a lower instances of historical heavy industry.
Using these statistics Wales again has a better record.

All hail the Messiah that is Mark Drakeford.

I had taken a headline figure and hadn’t drilled down - anyhow without playing fast a loose with deaths of real people to try to prove point (which we have both done already) - stats smats that said I’d agree yes post-industrial communities clearly suffer more as do the [objectively] ‘poor’ and by most measures Wales is [sadly] the poorest of the 4 main UK nations - albeit many parts pf Wales are very sparsely populated and have a farming/light industrial base - the tighter regulations in Wales have had no significant effect on death numbers and hospitalisations - i.e., Drakeford’s methods are not the gold standard. In any case my main point on the fan ban in particular but a number of the regulations is the farcical nature of them rather than the regulations themselves – common sense seems to be in short supply @Cardiff bay.

Sure we are all aware of the Lies, damn lies and statistics cliche. I was obviously being tongue in cheek when describing Drakeford as a Messiah, but trying to discredit him as overseeing a higher death rate Wales than England based on one set of stats alone is fundamentally wrong.

I'm genuinely not trying to ‘discredit’ a person who I really believe at heart is a decent and honourable (if extremely stubborn and at times petulant) man I don’t go with calling him silly names, etc., however I really don’t think his more localised and more homespun ‘principled’ approach is entirely suited to the realities of government during a pandemic (ditto Johnson’s buffoonery perhaps?) and my point was taking a step back and considering if what the Welsh government’s stance is actually working or working any better than [England’s] – I pointed out it largely wasn’t doing either.

I think deffo the pandemic [or the Welsh government’s approach to it] has massively affected my mental & physical health and relationship (my personal battles of course and not a cry for help - a lot of people in same position) and football is as I’ve said in other posts my one main social outlet – may sound pathetic and sad but I love football and despite some social anxiety enjoy going to the games in person it means a great deal to me…for various reasons some trivial some quite important I (and many others) feel the ‘fan ban’ and its farcical application was/is not the right approach. I know this has got to me and I’ve banged on about it but – I wish I could drop it but am so angry about it tbh – probably from the outside in I appear ridiculous! (like FFS man it’s a few game of football). All that said I’m not trying to attack Drakeford just his approach – a subtle but sure difference.

No beef with you btw – your arguments are measured and sensible that I don’t agree with them doesn’t make them any less valid – and sort of got your tongue in cheek tone but wasn’t 100% sure!

We can agree that his fan ban is wrong. It irritates, but doesn't annoy me. In the bigger scale of all things covid, I don't see it as important. That's probably mitigated by my belief that it will only be for a few weeks. The longer it goes on for though, my irritation may increase, especially if we continue to underperform as we did last Sat.

One thing I have not seen mentioned is the rule of six, in relation to sport being watched indoors in pubs.
Obviously if watching as a group of 6, if someone is asymptomatic, then it limits the possibility of spread to a max of 5 others.
Less so in the walkways and toilets at RP. If everyone could be trusted to flow and go, it wouldn't be a problem anywhere.