UPTHEPORT wrote:Serious question for those with a bit more knowledge than me
Quite a few experts are saying we should isolate the vulnerable and the rest of us should basically get on with our lives because the country can not afford to go on locking down
Economically they are probably right
Thoughts
Again, it's an argument based on false equivalence.
They cite the
undoubted economic damage being done now because of the restrictions imposed, but they do not reference what the economic damage will be if the infection is allowed to run relatively unfettered in the population.
They perhaps "all too conveniently" forget that as the number of cases of COVID-19 rises so will the number of people unable to work because of incapacity (and possibly long-term disability) due to disease symptoms or because they are a primary carer. As happened when the second wave of Hong Kong flu struck, there was a measurable impact on UK GDP, as transport, deliveries, schools, and general industrial production ground slowly for about 3 or 4 months. COVID-19, left to run relatively unfettered, would have that effect on GDP in spades, and you'd likely get a similar level of economic damage but a much larger number of deaths than following the current restrictions situation.
Also, as the number of cases rises, so the NHS will become rapidly unable to deal with the case load of COVID-19 cases, flu cases, and COVID-19+flu cases, and consequently any normal NHS activities too. This is still the main (generally unstated) reason for the recent increasing restrictions.
Then there is the law of unintended (or unplanned for) consequences. Who goes into work if the kids are off because of COVID-19 in school? The nurse looking after a general ward or his partner driving the van picking up pillar 2 or 3 COVID-19 test samples for delivery?
Doctors and nurses will be off work, and/or dying. Teachers will be off work. Amazon, Ocado,Tesco et al. delivery drivers will be off work. Postal workers will be off work. Production-line workers will be off. Meat-packing plants will be down. The list goes on. And it will all have an effect on GDP (as will the Brexit fallout from January if there is no deal).
If we had this "world class" regular mass testing, track and trace system that Boris promised then I'd be more inclined to listen and probably even agree with their argument.
We don't have a "world class" test system, and we won't during the pandemic because all you can generally do is firefight. And because of the very high number of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers, you really have to test the general population regularly, not just those suspected of having the disease. But we can't test enough of the suspected cases, let alone test asymptomatics.
Hence, IMHO, their argument deserves being given short shrift.