Their average is 1,186. More than Leeds will bring (officially).

lowandhardandinthecorner wrote: Me too but I’m not expecting to pick up much on the outrageous bet I made in the summer that we’d go up as champions the whisky must have tasted good that day By the way on one bet I only got 50-1 and the other 66-1 duh!

I also have £25 on Lamar Reynolds as top scorer at 100/1. Cash out is currently offering me £0 of the £2525 I stand to win if we ever pick him and the legs fall off all of Luton's players.

Stan A. Einstein wrote:It's Christmas. The season is nearing the half way point and we are in contention. We are ten points better off than I thought we would be. Managers of bad teams and people who don't really understand football tend to say things like 'we are playing well but we are just not getting the results we deserve. (Feeney, Butcher). The converse is also true. Forget performance it's a results business.
I don't think we will win promotion but we are in contention. Not wishing to disagree with Mike in Pembrokeshire but I have to. In my view take promotion if you can and worry about how to survive when you get there.

You want some kind of probability-based analytical tool to be judging that. How about Expected Goals (xG)... have a look at where Palace should be in the Premier League if they'd scored the chances they've been creating all season... https://understat.com/team/Crystal_Palace/2017

Explained (in 2014) here: http://11tegen11.net/2014/02/10/what-is-expg/ though as there's little publicly available data for League 2 it's not something we're likely to be able to properly estimate at the moment, and stuff like models for the ability of a player to progress the ball towards the goal are probably more useful (and they exist too: http://mackayanalytics.nl/category/football-analytics/).

UPTHEPORT wrote:

Alan G Bryant wrote:You have to love our supporters, 64 replies on a thread titled are we promotion candidates just 3 league games after a thread called relegation dogfight.

Few seasons back Berwick Rangers with three games left could still get promoted or relegation imagine thier forum then

Or Algeria's top division in 2015... every one of the 16 teams able to win the title with 4 matches left.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/bl ... -relegated

I stand by my statement I think we have a great chance

SJG99 wrote:

lowandhardandinthecorner wrote: Me too but I’m not expecting to pick up much on the outrageous bet I made in the summer that we’d go up as champions the whisky must have tasted good that day By the way on one bet I only got 50-1 and the other 66-1 duh!

I also have £25 on Lamar Reynolds as top scorer at 100/1. Cash out is currently offering me £0 of the £2525 I stand to win if we ever pick him and the legs fall off all of Luton's players.

Ho hum. I do not stand by this statement.

Think you got problems

30 goals in total from Lamar, Big Frank, Robbie, Marlon this season for us.
Bush wouldn't take the bet

I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

newgroundrodney wrote:I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

I would be seriously pissed off if we ended up 12th

newgroundrodney wrote:I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

Why do we need to win another 3 on the bounce, we are 3 points away from 3rd?

Harps62 wrote:Think you got problems

30 goals in total from Lamar, Big Frank, Robbie, Marlon this season for us.
Bush wouldn't take the bet

Tbf I do have three separate bets on County to be promoted at odds between 7/1 and 25/1 which will make me £1440 if we go up. That would be very helpful at the moment.

Ugo. wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

Why do we need to win another 3 on the bounce, we are 3 points away from 3rd?

....because other teams will pick up points along the way too. Some will drop points, but to challenge properly, and have our fate in our OWN hands, we need to win our games. Another 9 points on top of where we currently are, will see us in with a shout, even if some other teams get the odd win here and there, it won't affect us too much, as long as we pick up OUR points.

newgroundrodney wrote:I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

I can't see us not being within 5 points of the playoffs at worst based on the season so far, that would be somewhere between 69 and 66 points too. Can't see us being as low as 12th with 66 points just because 12th is currently 2 points off the log jam from 5th to 11th and that 2 point range covers ALL of those positions as things stand right now with Colchester in 12th just equalising.

newgroundrodney wrote:

Ugo. wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

Why do we need to win another 3 on the bounce, we are 3 points away from 3rd?

....because other teams will pick up points along the way too. Some will drop points, but to challenge properly, and have our fate in our OWN hands, we need to win our games. Another 9 points on top of where we currently are, will see us in with a shout, even if some other teams get the odd win here and there, it won't affect us too much, as long as we pick up OUR points.

A decent indicator is 2 points per game for the title and 10 points less than that for the playoffs.

Lincoln equaliser has just dropped us to 9th and Mansfield are playing against 10 men so we'll probably finish 9th after today having gained ground on Notts County, Wycombe, Accrington, Lincoln, Swindon and (maybe) Mansfield (if they don't score again).

SJG99 wrote:

newgroundrodney wrote:I think we're there or thereabouts, but I do expect us to hit the skids again at some point.
I reckon to be real contenders, we'd need to win the NEXT 3 on the bounce too, which makes 6 on the bounce in total..... a big ask, but that's what's needed to really be in with a shout.
I still think 12th on 66pts..... any better than that will be fantastic!

I can't see us not being within 5 points of the playoffs at worst based on the season so far, that would be somewhere between 69 and 66 points too. Can't see us being as low as 12th with 66 points just because 12th is currently 2 points off the log jam from 5th to 11th and that 2 point range covers ALL of those positions as things stand right now with Colchester in 12th just equalising.

...with 18 games to go, our last 18 games have yielded 25 pts. So if replicated we'll finish 11th on 70 pts, being 8 pts short of the Play-Offs (obviously that's not including today's games currently in progress)....this is why I feel we need another 3 on the bounce, to close that 8 pt gap